The London ULEZ expansion: should you stick or twist?

The London ULEZ expansion: should you stick or twist?
The expansion of the Ultra Low Emissions Zone (ULEZ) in London has given the city’s classic car owners a bit of a conundrum: should they sell or hang on?

Under the Mayor of London Sadiq Khan’s new legislation to be introduced in September 2023, the ULEZ will expand to include all London boroughs, not just the zone inside the North and South Circular Roads, where it currently resides. Cars that are non-compliant are subject to a £12.50 daily charge which means if you use your non-ULEZ car every day for a year you’ll have a £4,562.50 annual bill.

ULEZ charges are applied to petrol vehicles that do not comply with Euro 4, an earlier emissions standard, plus diesel vehicles that do not comply with Euro 6d. There are proposals in place for Euro 7 to be defined and ratified in 2025. This means the new ULEZ expansion in 2023 will remain based on the existing emission standards, at least until they change.

What that means in practical terms is that if you own a Euro 6 diesel that was made after September 2015, you are probably okay to drive in the ULEZ. Petrol cars that meet the ULEZ standards are generally those first registered with the DVLA after 2005 - although some have been available since 2001, so you’ll need to check whether yours is compliant. There are a number of ways to find out but we found the Transport for London checker is the easiest way – just type in the reg of the car and it’ll tell you.

According to the latest figures, there are around 200,000 vehicles in London that are currently non-compliant. Those owners will probably just sell up, but low-income earners who are running cars that aren’t particularly valuable will hope they can change vehicles without spending too much.

However, there is a bigger headache for owners of classic vehicles that do not comply. There are plenty of ‘80s, ‘90s and noughties ‘young timer’ models in London that are cherished by their owners but do not comply. Many won’t be daily drivers, but even if you think you’ll have a jaunt once a week in, say, your BMW E30, Peugeot 205 GTi or Porsche 993, you’ll pay around £300 a year: that’s road tax territory.

Now if you are loaded and living in London, not a problem, but if you are already feeling the pinch due to the cost of living crisis, then almost certainly the best option is to sell.

Then there are those who own cars that are on the precipice of achieving ‘historic’ status – those vehicles that are 40 years and older. If you have a 1985 model for example, it might well be worth storing your car for a couple of years and then, once the forced hibernation is over, apply for historic vehicle status and your car is not only ULEZ-friendly, it’ll be road tax-free, you won’t need to pay for an MOT, it’ll be congestion charge-free and in many cases, will be cheap to park in London’s ever-increasing Car Parking Zones (CPZ). If you can hang on to your classic, and store it with a reputable company that’ll look after your vehicle in controlled conditions without having to pay tax and insurance, it could be a wise option. Also, the values of these vehicles that can be driven in the capital without incurring exorbitant penalties may well increase.

Of course, this is all working on the notion that the ULEZ expansion in London will go ahead. Some London boroughs have resisted Khan’s proposals and have said that they won’t allow the camera technology to enforce ULEZ in their areas because they can see that this will present a problem for their low-income voters. There is a scrappage scheme available for Londoners who have disabilities or who receive means-tested benefits, which is a help. Scrappage values can be up to £2,000, or up to £5,000 for non-compliant wheelchair-accessible vehicles, but that’s of no use to people on low wages who do not have a disability.

Many who do not want to part with their non-compliant cars may be hoping that the councils who have opposed Khan’s plans will get their way, but that’s unlikely. History tells us that legislation introduced in the name of ‘progress’ will not be derailed by a few naysayers (Poll Tax excepted).

So, what will happen to the values of young timers and classic vehicles as a whole?

Shahzad Sheikh, motoring journalist and face of the ‘BrownCarGuy’ vlog, has been campaigning since November 2022 when the expansion was announced by the London Mayor and thinks the values of the more modern classics will not be hugely affected in the long term.

“I have a 1989 BMW E30 and I live in what will be the ULEZ expansion,” he explained. “I haven’t decided what I am going to do with the car, but because this is very localised – the rest of the country isn’t ULEZ – I can’t see values deteriorating. Yes, I think it will make it harder to sell those types of cars – you can’t just sell it to your mate down the road – but because there’s a market further afield, values will stay stable and continue to rise.

“What I would say is that there will be many unscrupulous dealers who might want to cash in and persuade you that your car is valueless. In this situation, people might be tempted to get rid of a car for a few hundred pounds when it’s actually worth a few thousand. I would advise people in this situation to do their research and establish the true value of the vehicle.

“I think the same is true of those cars coming up to 40 years old. Because it’s a local issue I don’t see values of 40-year-old plus cars shooting up, but then again, those who have a car close to that threshold might consider storing them for a while, then dusting them off when the car’s ULEZ complaint. When they do, hey, they will have a great car to drive around London! My ideal scenario would be to see everyone in London buying vehicles that are 40 years old or more and we’d have a city that looks like it is back in the ‘70s. We’d see all these wonderful cars every day.”

Are you a classic owner affected by the expanding Ultra Low Emission Zones? Let us know your thoughts or concerns below.