The rise, fall and risk of collectable classic bikes on the nostalgia curve shoulder

The rise, fall and risk of collectable classic bikes on the nostalgia curve shoulder
As a trainee journalist on a local newspaper, back in the day of concrete deadlines, mistake-intolerant typewriters and grainy black and white photos in newspapers that left your fingertips grey, you were tasked with leaning the basics: absolute accuracy.

It meant going out to meet couples celebrating their golden wedding anniversaries, nailing the detail, and, after the first dozen or so, hoping the answer to the question "what makes for a long and happy marriage?" wasn't "give and take, lad, give and take..."

When it comes to classic bikes, the answer to the question "what is it about old motorcycles?" was, until I purposely stopped asking it, "it's the nostalgia. Buying something I had when I was younger, or wanted but I couldn't afford".

There's no doubt that's still the case, but when you're at an auction and you overhear "Who's Steve McQueen?" and then "Who's Eddie Kidd?" within the space of five minutes, you realise that nostalgia definitely moves on with a relentless disregard for values - but then welcomes new members to the nostalgia club with a crocodile smile.

Just because a classic was worth £10,000 last year, £15,000 this year does not mean that's its forever trajectory.

Reviewing the Bonhams Cars Motorcycles Spring Stafford Sale there were some shocking auction expectation fall-shorts, but some equally-pleasing above-forecast prices realised. The question, given their inconsistencies, was whether these were blips or trends, and whether it meant winners, losers - or simply a desire to own a machine come what may.

The other big question is whether famous names add value, or whether it's the bike's provenance that pushes the price up.

I remember Steve McQueen - just. But these days it's for those rare occasions of stumbling across and getting temporarily hooked on movies like The Great Escape (and his ultimately fruitless motorcycle-mounted PoW camp breakout), or Bullitt, and one of the best car chases of all time.

But it seems the nostalgia curve has moved on. McQueen's 1937 Scott Flying Squirrel sidecar combo was estimated at £25,000 to £35,000 - but struggled up to £13,800. Then a few lots later, two Carl Fogarty VFR750R RC30 race bikes, 1988 and '89, went, respectively for £59,800 (estimate £30,000-£40,000) and then £43,700 (estimate £25,000-£35,000).

But then that curve wriggles in unexpected ways. Stunt rider Eddie Kidd's Yamaha YZ490 wheelie-ing, donut-ing, bus-jumping bike was forecast to do £5,000 to £8,000 - but went into auction orbit with a £37,950 winning bid including premium.

Giving more indications of where the nostalgia curve peak is at, Niall Mackenzie's 1986 British Championship winning Armstrong-CCM CF250 was forecast to be a £6,000 to £10,000 machine - but kept going all the way to £23,000.

Indicating the era the nostalgia curve is levelling out were two Mike Hailwood replica Ducatis - 1980 and '81. Both estimated at £9,000 to £12,000; the '81 went for £10,350, the '80 for £8,625. Similar "requires decommissioning" condition, slightly different spec, but it's not so long ago "an MH" regardless of condition was a £20-something bike, although, in fairness, some of the best still can be.

But perhaps an indication of where that curve has long since left, an ex-Tommy Robb Bultaco 125 TSS race bike forecast for £15,000 to £25,000, peaked at £8,625.

The question - and risk - is will such machines, rare as they are, ever make a comeback value-wise, or do they warrant that other collector standby phrase: "I just wanted it because I liked it"?